[20081117]CICC China Market Wrap

Equity Market (Please see A/B and A/H Premium/Discount Table in attached file)

Shanghai Composite opened at 1981.26 and closed at 2030.48 (+2.22%) volume RMB92.38bn (US$13.53bn)
Shenzhen Component opened at 6634.63 and closed at 6783.03 (+1.84%) volume RMB42.58bn (US$6.24bn)
Local market confidence saw a significant recovery and pushed A-shares another decent rally. Some investors commented the worst scenario had been priced in the market while more favorable government measures including rate cut and economy stimulus plans are on the way to come. Indeces spiraled up in the Pm session after the morning’s small range fluctuation. The broad market recorded over 4% gains and the large caps rallied only 2%. We did have quite some spotlights in the market on different positive news. Airliners experienced a group up-limit after the Rmb 6 bn capital injection in CEA and CSA. Power Equipment producers surged thanks to the government over 1 trillion spending in the next few years. And the rumor of asset injection on China National medicine spurred the Pharmaceutical counters. Properties were the only weak sector, given the unrealized weekend rate cut. Heard retail investors were aggressive buyers for the rally but local funds and QFIIs net sold. But never overlook the retails as they actually weight more than 50% of the market share. The rally may still be continued in the short-term.
PBoC’s vice governor Yi Gang recently claims china has well controlled the inflation but deflation is the foremost concern now. He adds that government now picked the positive fiscal policy and moderate loosed monetary policy to counter the deflation risk.
According to China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation (CSDCC), “Daxiao Fei” only sold 404 mln shares to the market out of the 9.005 bn unlocked shares. The selling pressure is decreasing as we saw 453mln, 480 mln and 849 mln shares sold to the market from “Daxiao Fei” respectively in Sep, Aug and July. Noted that “Xiao Fei”s are still aggressive sellers as 25% of the unlocked shares got dumped into the market.
SHCOMP: ADVANCERS OUTPACED DECLINERS 2.77:1
SHENZHEN: ADVANCERS OUTPACED DECLINERS 2.58:1
BLUE-CHIP LARGE CAPS mixed: CHINA UNICOM (600050) +5.78%, BAOSTEEL (600019) flat, YANGTZE POWER (600900) SPECIAL SUSPENSION, SINOPEC (600028) +5.38%, DAQIN RAILWAY (601006) -0.10%, AIRCHINA (601111) +9.93% (Up-limit), CHINA LIFE (601628) +0.65%, PINGAN (601318) +2.26%, SHENHUA ENERGY (601088) -0.74%, CHINA COAL (601898) +1.29%, PETROCHINA (601857) +0.78%, CHINA COSCO HOLDINGS (601919) +1.02%, CHINA RAILWAY (601390) +1.66%
BANKS rallying on huijin’s buying rumor: SPDB (600000) +2.07%, MINSHENG (600016) +1.28%, CMB (600036) +1.40%, HUAXIA BANK (600015) +2.76%, ICBC (601398) +0.98% BOC (601988) +2.36% INDUSTRIAL BANK (601166) +0.75%, BOCOMM (601328) +0.96%, CCB (601939) +2.25%, CITIC BANK (601998) +2.04%, SZDB (000001) +3.67%
PROPERTY STOCKS being weak after no rate cut was seen in the weekend: VANKE (000002) -1.30%, GEMDALE (600383) -0.94%, COFCO PROP (000031) +1.15%, FINANCIAL ST. (000402) -1.81%, CHINA MERCHANTS PROP (000024) -0.97%, POLY (600048) -0.81%, LUJIAZUI (600663) +7.44%
Government Bond Market
CGB market tumbled by 0.04% to close @ 119.75. Volume dropped to 1.543bn. Of total 51 bonds 11 up, 27 flat and 13 ended in green. The heavily traded bonds mixed: 7-yr bond 010210 +0.06% yield 2.48%.10-yr bond 010112 -0.01% yield 2.54%.7-yr bond 010115 flat yield 2.34%.