年份 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
单品价格单位(元/台) |
11000 |
8600 |
6900 |
5400 |
4200 |
3300 |
2900 |
2300 |
1915 |
1250 |
Dependent variable.. 价格 Method.. INVERSE
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .93591
R Square .87593
Adjusted R Square .85821
Standard Error 1169.89516
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 67641617.2 67641617.2
Residuals 7 9580582.8 1368654.7
F = 49.42197 Signif F = .0002
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
Time 10196.953204 1450.475438 .935914 7.030 .0002
Constant) 1963.127011 599.952312 3.272 .0136
_
Dependent variable.. 价格 Method.. QUADRATI
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .99876
R Square .99752
Adjusted R Square .99669
Standard Error 178.62801
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 2 77030752.2 38515376.1
Residuals 6 191447.8 31908.0
F = 1207.07716 Signif F = .0000
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
Time -2470.168831 104.362486 -2.177365 -23.669 .0000
Time**2 138.116883 10.178275 1.248307 13.570 .0000
(Constant) 13145.476190 227.289497 57.836 .0000
_
Dependent variable.. 价格 Method.. CUBIC
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .99973
R Square .99946
Adjusted R Square .99914
Standard Error 90.94033
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 3 77180849.3 25726949.8
Residuals 5 41350.7 8270.1
F = 3110.82235 Signif F = .0000
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
Time -3118.660414 161.227177 -2.748987 -19.343 .0000
Time**2 292.031025 36.498134 2.639391 8.001 .0005
Time**3 -10.260943 2.408561 -.844259 -4.260 .0080
(Constant) 13822.698413 196.620555 70.301 .0000
MODEL: MOD_5.
_
Dependent variable.. 价格 Method.. COMPOUND
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .99803
R Square .99606
Adjusted R Square .99549
Standard Error .04045
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 2.8931719 2.8931719
Residuals 7 .0114512 .0016359
F = 1768.56886 Signif F = .0000
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
Time .802848 .004192 .368606 191.514 .0000
(Constant) 13205.129355 388.011272 34.033 .0000
_
Dependent variable.. 价格 Method.. EXPONENT
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .99803
R Square .99606
Adjusted R Square .99549
Standard Error .04045
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 2.8931719 2.8931719
Residuals 7 .0114512 .0016359
F = 1768.56886 Signif F = .0000
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
Time -.219589 .005222 -.998027 -42.054 .0000
(Constant) 13205.129355 388.011272 34.033 .0000
_
Dependent variable.. 价格 Method.. LGSTIC
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .99803
R Square .99606
Adjusted R Square .99549
Standard Error .04045
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 2.8931719 2.8931719
Residuals 7 .0114512 .0016359
F = 1768.56886 Signif F = .0000
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
Time 1.245565 .006504 2.712924 191.514 .0000
(Constant) 7.5728148745E-05 2.2251E-06 34.033 .0000
MODEL: MOD_6.
_
Dependent variable.. 价格 Method.. POWER
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .96595
R Square .93305
Adjusted R Square .92349
Standard Error .16667
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 2.7101609 2.7101609
Residuals 7 .1944622 .0277803
F = 97.55688 Signif F = .0000
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
Time -.809218 .081929 -.965946 -9.877 .0000
(Constant) 13925.335289 1797.809098 7.746 .0001
_
Dependent variable.. 价格 Method.. GROWTH
Listwise Deletion of Missing Data
Multiple R .99803
R Square .99606
Adjusted R Square .99549
Standard Error .04045
Analysis of Variance:
DF Sum of Squares Mean Square
Regression 1 2.8931719 2.8931719
Residuals 7 .0114512 .0016359
F = 1768.56886 Signif F = .0000
-------------------- Variables in the Equation --------------------
Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T
Time -.219589 .005222 -.998027 -42.054 .0000
(Constant) 9.488361 .029383 322.916 .0000
通过各个模型的方差分析表和各回归分析系数的检验结果,我们发现二次曲线,三次曲线,复合函数,指数函数,逻辑函数,幂函数,增长函数的拟合优度都很高(0.99以上),并且通过了方程显著性检验和系数显著性检验。 |